Don’t be fooled, size IS everything
One thing to notice at CES is size. While the venue itself is massive that’s not what I’m talking about. I’m talking about the size of the products.
Mobile devices are shrinking rapidly. TVs/display units are expanding in width (and shrinking in price) all the time. With the OLEDs beginning to enter the market, everything is getting thinner as well.
With this means for the consumer is that we will see (though probably not notice) all these devices become extremely common place around us. We already see flat panel displays nearly everywhere. As ubiquitous computing becomes a reality we will be less impressed with these technologies and take them all for granted. The disruptive nature of this next is no longer overt and active. Passively, however, they will change everything.
With OLEDs will come digital paper and giant, super thin signage and ad-space. Tshirts that can change color and pattern (this of the rev. share on digital clothes! who’s going to pay you more to wear their brand). Mobile devices will be built into everything, from GPS-aware clothing and luggage to the classic Dick Tracy communicator watch. And media will be integrated with EVERYthing, from your kitchen counter that controls you music play-list for that zone to your rear car-seat movie player that stream your favourite flicks.
These technologies, though not essentially new, will disrupt the consumer landscape and our everyday lives very passively. They will trickle into everything as they get cheaper and smaller and we will continue to take them for granted much as we have taken the Internet for granted. Some of the more core systems and services of the Internet are anywhere from 30-40 years old. All we’ve done is made them faster and easier to get to but it’s still the same TCP/IP stack that came out of DARPA in the 60’s. We’re still using a communication system, email, that was developer in 1961! But Internet technology STILL continues to drive and change our everyday lives is small, but ultimately significant ways.
The size factor of a technology is a key phase, after inception, in it’s life-cycle and we are in that phase with many technologies today. The next phase will be the integration of these technologies and the last will be the exploitation of new usages for them. We already look at many implementations of technology and go “huh, well geez, why not?” and I really believe this will continue for sometime until we come upon a new and active disruptor.
